A Classification of Uncertainty for Early Product and System Design

Next up in our Papers in Systems discussion series: A Classification of Uncertainty for Early Product and System Design, by Olivier de Weck, Claudia Eckert and John Clarkson

"the multiple uncertainties affect each other, but don’t all overlap. Many endogenous uncertainties are independent of the exogenous uncertainties. A product needs to reliable and durable regardless of the mode or environment in which it will operate. The construction of a facility on the other hand may be deeply affected by access to critical supply routes (e.g. Suez Canal) for its raw materials and specialized equipment. In many ways the exogenous uncertainties provide the backdrop on which the endogenous ones need to be accessed and mitigated against. One useful mental model is to think of these uncertainties as occurring in layers around each other"

The paper is at: https://web.mit.edu/deweck/Public/Alstom/deWeck_Eckert_Uncertainty_2007.pdf

When: Monday, July 1st, 2024, 1 PM - 2 PM Eastern Time (US/Canada). The Zoom room will remain open until 2:30 PM for informal discussion.

Discussion will be led by Tiani Jones